barely surviving the longing for a godsend. they live in a search for gold. why doesn't it bring them wealth. hello. hello. hello. and if you. follow in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle china has successfully transition

did sell through another leadership change the last decade has witnessed this country transformed at tremendous speed and become the second largest economic power in the world what can we expect over the next decade from china many are wary of china's rise the real worry though is how the rest of the world reacts to that problem. and a. little. cross from china's new geopolitics in the twenty first century i'm joined by jonathan whole slagged in brussels he is a research fellow at the brussels institute of contemporary china studies in washington we have brian becker he is a national coordinator for the answer coalition and in san francisco we cross to drew gladney he is the president of the pacific basin institute and a professor of anthropology at pomona college i gentlemen cross-talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want jonathan i'd like to go to you first we have a transition in china a ten year transition now we're going to have another ten years under this

leadership what's the difference going to be. well i think essentially it's a choice for continuation we have a line a peer of seven fairly conservative leaders and surely the guys who could really make a change in terms of economic political reforms have been largely sidelined and replaced to for example the state council so i think probably we will see more of the same i really don't dissipate a lot of bold and fundamental reforms in this country in the next five or ten years ok brian where do you come in on that ok because you know we've everyone's been watching china china's rise you know when does it arrive. well china has quite a ways to go in terms of becoming a fully developed country as it self admits i think that jonathan is right that the leadership chooses they have continuity they want stability they have a clearly defined and highly refined foreign policy which basically suggest that what they're mainly concerned about is there are peaceful rise as they describe it

but they're trying is under a lot of pressure because you see a growing pressure from the united states in particular from japan and from proxy governments or governments who may not consider themselves proxies but may ultimately function that way in the asia pacific so what the foreign policy and what china's orientation is will be largely measured by the pressure it comes under and how it reacts to that ok drew that's a very interesting point because everyone's interacting with everyone else there is that is the pacific really prepared for the rise the the rise of china i mean it's the rise of its military as well we have the american pivot there i mean you're just filling up that ocean with a lot more ships a lot more weaponry. well sitting here on the edge of the pacific i think our perspective maybe a little bit different than my colleagues. the feeling that china is rising is definitely obvious everywhere you look from the street corners all the chinese newspapers but of course the chinese call this place. all gold mountain

so they see this edge of the pacific as a place of long history destiny do opportunity and there are deep connections between the pacific rim across across this golden gate ok you know jonathan it's very interesting and i've done it we've done a number of programs on china and some of the china experts we've had on you know that's not the rise of china it's the return of china we just took a break for a while. i think is there finitely to gays but we need a main question is whether china is going to be able to persist with this project of rising of developing and i think here really we see the people's republic of china hitting a lot of curbs what is essential for me in the first place is that its economic growth model has become very and sustainable that most of the decision makers in beijing also know that this is the case they even know what there has to be done to reform and to balance but also most of the decision makers in beijing tell me that

there is a problem with the leadership that the leadership is more fragmented than before cannot make it make up its mind about how it wants to implement these changes and that there is and i think this is essentially to stress that there is a growing tendency towards towards nationalism and that of course is going to shape china's position in the global scene it will have more domestic pressures as my my colleague already stressed and emphasized but it will also have more expectations from from the world the leaders will be stuck in between and have not much maneuverability at all to make concessions and compromises you know brian what do you think about the the element of nationalism because jonathan got ahead of me and i agree with him completely you know that that's something to let off a lot of steam when you begin to run into some kind of problems at home you can always you know work the foreign policy levers there and we've seen it's quite effective with the dispute with the i want to speak with japan. well i

think conventional wisdom or at least the main way this is being presented is that nationalism in china is simply sort of a way to let off steam or to channel discontent or to focus on others rather than internal problems but i think there is a deep seeded chinese nationalism that's based on the history the history of colonialism the history of occupation the history that's even a recent history where the united states and the western powers really are challenging china at all levels while keeping a diplomatic facade still really challenging them the pivot towards asia and the dispute along the islands that die you islands where that is considered by trying to be a provocation not just by japan but also with the complicity of the united states that of course stimulates nationalism which is sort of an authentic and genuine feeling about the child from the chinese people that they don't want to be humiliated that they want their rightful place in the world that they want to be

able to develop peacefully you know you do what do you think about the reason the chinese would be look at the united states in the united states as its monroe doctrine and one can japan have its equivalent on in its neighborhood i mean it is the rising power it will be the largest economy in the world. well i think for the chinese you know this. trying to manipulate and it may be. in some cases encouraged nationalistic responses to world events particularly in its near neighbors whether in central asia russia or particular more recently in the south china sea the cop who island the japanese japanese islands you know what you do that's a difficult tire to ride and once you let it out of its cage it can spin out of control and the new leaders of china they're most worried about domestic spill and they need to keep that economy moving in order to control their domestic population

and nationalism could be a very destructive force for the so the harmony that this new leadership seeks to. keep in place jonathan how does the new leadership bounce those two issues continuing to grow the economy but to have more of an activist foreign policy i don't want to use the word aggressive but activist well i think first and foremost is very important to stress that in the last decade or two decades or so political so used to be in control of nationalism i think nowadays we are arriving at a turning point at which nationalism risks to get in control of politics and not the least foreign policy for me essentially that brings china two to encounter two major challenges to major die lammas the first is an economic development china is increasingly expected by its neighborhood by countries like japan india to share part of its economic success story to make sure that for instance industrial development can also spillover that jobs can be created elsewhere but the chinese

leadership is not able to give in to that given the strong social pressures domestically the second challenge is more of a strategic security. and that's what the wrangling over to pursue. it's rooted in history china has this agenda since the seventy's to try to break through the first and second island chain and eventually to turn potential aggressors not the least the united states for the united states of course it's completely the opposite it tries to stick its security perimeter as close to the eurasian continent as possible this wrangling these power place on their turn of course will continue to engender a lot of frictions and competition with china's direct neighbors with south korea with vietnam with japan and so forth brining i mean i guess you would want to say diplomatically but the united states is trying to contain china in every way possible. well i think the united states is trying to contain china

limit china it's trying to move in and really compete aggressively with china i think that's what's happening with the island disputes i think that's what's happening in terms of the the missile defense shield in japan which is nothing other than a prescription for a potential first strike attack against china and i think china perceives it that way the chinese government and the chinese society in general understands that china's rise is being confronted early on by japan but now principally by the united states what is the united states real agenda i believe that even though they see china as a large and expansive market where you can make mega profits alternately the hostility the decades old hostility of the rule of the chinese communist party in china by washington policymakers as such that the u.s. will form of eventually a sort of a this integrating strategy in china to overthrow replace the chinese communist

party using of course some legitimate grievances but ultimately trying to be stabilized china because they they considers china's rise to be a direct threat to the world generally by the united states that's how they view it drew i mean what if ok jonathan jump in but you know it's a large it will be the largest economy in the world very soon jonathan jump in. for the white house is this really has been a balancing exercise i don't really share the viewpoint of my colleague that is seeking sort of to topple the communist polity within china because it will be extremely risky from a security if you point from an economic viewpoint i think still the linchpin of america's strategy towards china is a sort of conditioning gauge when combined with with with deterrence and deterrence is of course a very very difficult sensitive policy it combines sort of military muscle flexing to try to uphold military primacy in the western pacific but it also entails

reassurance and i think for. at a time being still washington is putting a lot of. efforts to making a lot of efforts also to reassure china that is not trying to deal will its growth but to some degree control it to make it manageable kater if i may show it and i know you can see about that i'd like to take issue with. thirty seconds before going to go ahead well i think we just have to yes the united states is reassuring china but if there is a domestic opposition in china similar to what happened in iran in two thousand and nine or what happened in syria or what happened in china in one nine hundred eighty nine with tiananmen you'll see that the whole western media and the u.s. government turned suddenly sharply to support that opposition against the chinese communist party that's an underlying part of the politics and i think the chinese government knows that ok brian let me jump in gentlemen we're going to go to a short break and after that sharp continue our discussion on china stay with us.

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. download the official ati application. choose your language stream quality and enjoy your favorite. t.v. is not required to watch on t.v. all you need is your mobile device to watch on t.v. any time any place. the team. started. and. the a. welcome back to crossfire computer labelle to remind you we're talking about china and its relationship with the world. elite and. the elite. ok drew i'd like to go back to you in san francisco you were and are two

other guys before we went to the break would you like to take a side there but nature of containment of china. well i think one issue i would take it you know one aspect i take issue with is the idea that the u.s. is unified in its view on china i think there are very deep conflicting views who course we just went through electoral process the united states in which both parties were competing to see who could stand up to china but really the issues sitting down around the trade table and dealing with this enormous economic you know imbalance that we the trade imbalance and debt and there's a great deal of anxiety there's a great deal of. uncertainty on how to really tackle some of these deep trade problems without upsetting the balance that with the strategic balance that

we've achieved in the pacific so there does not seem to be any sort of clear pinion on which direction to take now and china they just had a selector role process not an electoral process in which they picked their new seven leaders and clearly for them domestic issues keeping that country together keeping it on track keeping are growing at a pace that will solve many of its domestic challenges i take. my colleague susan shirks description of china's it's a very fragile superpower it is not the kind of threat that was often portrayed in the last election of course that sort of idea of stain of china was preaching to our domestic audience and which there is i think a great deal of of popular concern about jobs and about the u.s. economy and its dependency now on china ok jonathan jump in go ahead and brussels i think essentially on the two sides of the pacific we have fragile powerless and we

have a deficit or economic model on the american side and we have a surplus investment driven economic model on the other side both. have become unsustainable sort of fundamental challenge for washington and beijing is to try to rebalance the cause of development in a way that avoids all out trade wars and that especially prevents that economic free public anxiety is going to interment intermingle with nationalism and military power plays that would be really the worst case scenario for both parties not that notwithstanding it is clear that washington has become fairly frustrated with. the way the relations with china develop things haven't really worked out as expected so there has been some sort searching going on but the conclusion has been that there should be more engagement more engagement coupled with there with the terrence and showing where direct lines are ok wait brian if i go to you i mean the

interdependency this is what's keeping it together right and if there is any gauge minutes the terms and conditions that's what the chinese have a problem with sometimes. well right i mean let's also put the context the military context for engagement as well of course both militaries engage at some level they have some level of. sort of an agreement to do certain things but the united states spends a trillion dollars that's the real number for military expenditures china spends one hundred billion that's gone up but still it's about one tenth the size of the united states when you include all the other expenditures for defense in america that are not part of the pentagon budget at the same time the united states has invoked a number of punitive acts against china for so-called trade violations that was as you could see a popular item during the election campaign where obama and romney were were

trashing each other trying to appeal to the american nationalist sentiment and at the same time the united states government was angry that china and russia unlike in the case of libya refused to go along with the american plans to overthrow the government in syria so there's a lot of pressure on china that in order to have an engagement that's that's that's stable that the united states must have a preeminence in other parts of the world like the middle east but china is aware now after libya that completely appeasing the american foreign policy designs is in fact threatening china because once the regime change ball gets rolling right it just keeps growing and so i think the chinese have a recalibrated their foreign policy especially because of the lessons learned in libya and in the middle you know drew that the you need let me put you in san francisco it's very interesting the chinese and the russians just watch the americans the strong themselves all over the world with their allies along with it you know i'm sure

a city in beijing from now they want to go there really and the chinese should stay out of it ok just keep expanding their economy. well the chinese have had an extremely extremely successful foreign policy particularly in the middle east. there are very close trade relationship with israel as well as all of the arab states and the gulf states of course china is much more dependent on middle east oil now than the united states and in fact the predictions by twenty thirty five the united states will be almost free will be free of gulf oil persian gulf oil so we're moving in a very different direction in our relationship with the middle east than china is but china has been very successful and maintaining those relationships that go way back some of the earliest states to recognize china in the forty's and fifty's were the arab states many of them socialist leaning baths on r.t. but also china is very troubled by its relationships in south asia particularly

other problems between pakistan and india so it's a very difficult transition for this news late leadership they have these domestic challenges but they have to keep fueling that economy and they have and they need fuel and they can't keep relying on coal because what it's doing to their own environment as well as as well as their own sort of need to shift to a third station vellum it jonathan you want to jump in there. yes absolutely and what i think when you discuss with diplomats and officials in beijing they are and saw positive about their own diplomacy at all china feels as a as a rising power without friends it's sees itself as a power that is challenged by public opinions and insecurity all over the world and it feels sort of trapped in the new people or order it's really desperate to find new allies and partners now a dad of course inside elicits a very vivid debate in china industry

a teacher community and here i think more or less you can discern two schools on the one hand you have faults who argued that peace for allies is not viable and that china should become more assertive bolder in in defending its interests somewhat behave like the united states essentially and then you have another school stressing and pushing for a more conciliatory line more compromises also making more economic concessions especially to the neighborhood my take is that at this very moment most of the new lead leaders still side with with with the second strand with the to school of prudence but that still it remains to be seen whether the return of nationalism could push the first school the more assertive school to a new height ok it seems to me that china's foreign policy risk averse ok again you know they stay out of all these messes that the the united states and its allies go into when bankrupt them selves lose their credibility the chinese are stand on the

stand on the sidelines and it's paying off. well in some ways yes but there's a there's another issue that i think is developing and that's because of the asia pivot which the you know the republicans say that's a false pivot the united states isn't really turning towards the asia pacific but it is you're going to see as you said in the beginning a lot more ships a lot more of the u.s. navy and the air force in in the asia pacific and also the united states government refuses to sign the law of the season treaty because it has the zines for the asia pacific for a mineral exploration and other energy exploration which puts it in a direct collision course with the chinese government's perceived interest not only for territorial sovereign control over certain islands but for the economic exploitation of the of the ocean bed and so i think china is going to be confronted

with a new problem in its own backyard which is going to be protracted and while the u.s. is of course still focused on the middle east where two thirds of the world's oil and natural gas is this pivot is for real and i think it means that the chinese are recognizing that the confrontational element with the united states is unavoidable and that will give great way to those in china who say we should have a more assertive foreign policy because the confrontation is not going to and by appeasing the united states through what do you think the chances are of confrontation in the next ten years and you've got to get over many mineral resources about the economy right. well i i'm very skeptical of that idea i think it plays into this china threat lobby and it fuels domestic nationalism and i think it's very. you know there's no real substance to that military particularly in the pacific we so dominate

pacific it's a course china is growing but what i think would what is clear is china is a very pragmatic policy and it has pragmatic concerns and regions that china regards as its own it will defend but in terms of x. territorial expansion china i think has its hands full with these challenges such as to bat for example or the western regions of sheen john little lone. challenge in the united states outside what china perceives to be its borders and for example look at what's happened with taiwan and its growing relationship with china that's really no longer a major strategic issue for the u.s. military although of course. the taiwan issue constantly is is of great concern particularly when it leads to issues of democratization for the challenges within china and when we see this political theater recently have this electoral process the giant. we begin to see the vast differences that does do

separate the political scene in taiwan from china that's a concern they don't want that kind of democratic process to sweep through their very tightly controlled very secretive selective process all right gentlemen mabel do this program ten years from now many thanks many thanks to my guest today in london washington and in san francisco and thanks to our viewers for watching us here see you next time remember prostitutes. you know how sometimes you see a story and it seems so for lengthly you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realized

everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm tom harpur welcome to the big picture. she didn't sorrow. and hope for escape. barely surviving longing for a godsend. they live in a search for gold. why doesn't it bring them wealth.

more news today violence is once again flared up. these are the images go forward have been seeing from the streets of canada. china corporations are all today.